Do I ship it?

GamesReal-TimeReal-Time + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Fantasy

Only 10 developers shipped a Fantasy Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tower of Mask, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $9.0k against a market of $630. 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 14.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 2525% on the market, 17 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $118k → $599 → $9.0k
Outcomes for Real-Time + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,992)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,058)
Top 5% $118k (exactly $117,703)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 77
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2525% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time
Price point
$10.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 94% positive over 709 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Mythology: Extended Edition older $29.99 31,869 93% 956k $29M (exactly $28,672,539) SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotte… (SkyBox Labs, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $14.99 8,812 94% 264k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,756) Relic Entertainment
Legend of Grimrock older $14.99 4,844 93% 145k $2.2M (exactly $2,178,347) Almost Human Games
Tower of Time older $24.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.7M (exactly $1,740,803) Event Horizon
Shadows: Awakening older $29.99 1,535 75% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,040) Games Farm
Stronghold Legends: Steam Edition older $14.99 2,297 87% 69k $1.0M (exactly $1,032,961) Firefly Studios
Circle Empires older $8.99 3,739 89% 112k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,408) Luminous
Godsworn · EA older $29.99 805 93% 24k $724k (exactly $724,258) Thunderoak Interactive
Tower of Mask $10.99 357 95% 11k $118k (exactly $117,703) Papertip Studio
Warhammer: Mark of Chaos - Gold Edition (Classic) $14.99 188 96% 5.6k $85k (exactly $84,544) Black Hole Entertainment
Gem Miner TD $12.99 72 97% 2.2k $28k (exactly $28,058) iFeral Games
Dungeons & Dragons: Dragonshard $9.99 45 80% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Liquid Entertainment
Eclipse Breaker $11.99 25 96% 750 $9.0k (exactly $8,992) Lunar Workshop, Jorge Rodriguez
Warsong · EA $14.99 10 70% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Windforce
TechnoSorcery $7.99 8 100% 240 $1.9k (exactly $1,918) The Ancient Arcanum
Kraktures $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Deggy
Yagazem Elements $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) CirilXD
Edge Of Extinction $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Azulon Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.