Do I ship it?

GamesProgrammingProgramming + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Programming game?

Programming + Fantasy

Only 13 developers shipped a Fantasy Programming game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Auto Rogue, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $420. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 16 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 16 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.4k → $899 → $3.1k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 5% $151k (exactly $150,774)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 27
Announced 16
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Automation, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 924 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hack 'n' Slash older $13.37 538 57% 16k $216k (exactly $215,792) Double Fine Productions
Auto Rogue $6.99 719 91% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 定期的な宝物
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
Arcane Assembly older $7.99 134 72% 4.0k $32k (exactly $32,120) Isaac Lee
Card Coder $14.99 27 74% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Prof. Scherer
Code Wizard: Java Edition older $5.99 41 85% 1.2k $7.4k (exactly $7,368) Duckisoft
Dreamy Duels ~ Tales of Heroes in Gensoukyo · EA older $7.99 26 65% 780 $6.2k (exactly $6,232) IGensoukyo
Upalu Mundi $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) True Baboons
Lambda Spellcrafting Academy - Learn to Program! older $19.99 5 80% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) Bit Twiddle Games
Multiply Factory older $4.99 12 91% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Time Shrink Studio
Scripted Land $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Hyakuren Soft
Circuit Stance $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Fluffy Brown
Cal & Bomba $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Filiokus
Dungeon-Bot $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) XREALL
Widget Warriors $4.99 5 0% 150 $748 (exactly $748) Vespertine Game
Chained Runes $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Carton 22

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.