Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Investigation game?

Investigation + Fantasy

Of 104 developers who shipped a Fantasy Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 197 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×3.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×360 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 197 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 197 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 104
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.1k → $3.3k → $959 → $1.6k → $1.9k → $1.3k → $6.6k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 104
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,869)
Top 5% $171k (exactly $170,932)
Developers, 2 yr 104
Released games 368
Announced 197
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 6,468 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $8.8k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 9 in 10 of the 66 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 197 games are announced against 57 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Forgotten City older $24.99 11,159 96% 335k $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) Modern Storyteller
Sanfu older $10.99 17,323 82% 520k $5.7M (exactly $5,711,393) Shiying Studio
The Thaumaturge older $34.99 3,888 81% 117k $4.1M (exactly $4,081,234) Fool's Theory
Wytchwood older $19.99 4,030 92% 121k $2.4M (exactly $2,416,791) Alientrap
Firmament older $34.99 905 72% 27k $950k (exactly $949,978) Cyan Worlds, Inc.
7 Days to End with You older $7.99 3,327 87% 100k $797k (exactly $797,482) Lizardry
Is this Game Trying to Kill Me? $14.99 1,513 95% 45k $680k (exactly $680,396) Stately Snail
Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy $39.99 526 90% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) Microids Studio Paris
Old Skies $19.99 969 93% 29k $581k (exactly $581,109) Wadjet Eye Games
A Guidebook of Babel older $14.99 877 92% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) StarryStarry
Best Served Cold $17.99 671 87% 20k $362k (exactly $362,139) Rogueside
ギルド探求団へようこそ! $3.99 1,470 98% 44k $176k (exactly $175,959) ぱるそに工房
The End of the Sun $24.99 228 97% 6.8k $171k (exactly $170,932) The End of the Sun Forge
Chronoquartz $9.99 510 98% 15k $153k (exactly $152,847) Infinite Stairs
Lavender Quartz 境界秤動 $11.99 300 95% 9.0k $108k (exactly $107,910) Edanoue, Inc.
The Remake of the End of the Greatest RPG of All Time $17.99 146 86% 4.4k $79k (exactly $78,796) Coin Drop Games, Lucas Immanuel, jucobe… (Coin Drop Games, Lucas Immanuel, jucobee, Kyle Chuang)
Shadows of the Afterland $14.99 135 95% 4.1k $61k (exactly $60,710) Aruma Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.