Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Fighting game?

Fighting + Fantasy

Of 33 developers who shipped a Fantasy Fighting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×1.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.2M, ×4192 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 78 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 78 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $3.3k → $16k → $9.0k → $3.0k → $4.8k → $2.4k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 25% $7.0k (exactly $7,012)
Top 5% $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 225
Announced 78
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Arcade
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Hand-drawn, Side Scroller
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 19,995 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $7.0k, 1 in 20 over $6.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
GUILTY GEAR -STRIVE- older $39.99 47,650 88% 1.4M $57M (exactly $57,165,705) Arc System Works
Blade and Sorcery older $29.99 59,074 96% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,148,878) WarpFrog
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 4 older $19.99 72,409 90% 2.2M $43M (exactly $43,423,677) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
DRAGON BALL Z: KAKAROT older $19.99 43,951 92% 1.3M $26M (exactly $26,357,415) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
SCARLET NEXUS older $59.99 13,749 81% 412k $25M (exactly $24,744,075) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
Mortal Kombat X older $19.99 39,392 88% 1.2M $24M (exactly $23,623,382) NetherRealm Studios, QLOC
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Rivals of Aether II $29.99 6,980 78% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,279,906) Aether Studios
Avatar Legends: The Fighting Game $29.99 3,298 85% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,967,211) Gameplay Group International
Elements Divided $14.99 137 86% 4.1k $62k (exactly $61,609) Loco Motion Devs
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
King's Blade $8.99 49 81% 1.5k $13k (exactly $13,215) Alexey Suslin
Leif's Adventure: Netherworld Hero $19.99 15 86% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) OneManOnMars Art & Games e.K
StellaGale: The Trials Of Faith · EA $9.99 29 96% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Extra Life Entertainment, Vifth Floor
DAWN ONE $8.99 26 76% 780 $7.0k (exactly $7,012) shaderbunny
Heatwave $10.00 21 95% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,300) Monochromesoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.