Do I ship it?

Games › Extraction Shooter › Extraction Shooter + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Extraction Shooter?

Extraction Shooter + Sci-fi

Of 26 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Extraction Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $82k, ×55 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $14k; 1 in 20 cleared $53M, ×35974 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 43 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 54.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Extraction Shooter + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $1.8M → $720k (still earning) → $82k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Extraction Shooter + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Median $82k (exactly $81,713)
Top 25% $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609)
Top 5% $54M (exactly $53,889,324)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 36
Announced 43
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Extraction Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online PvPvE sessions with persistent stash servers
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Extraction Shooter; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvE, Shooter
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 420,238 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $14k, median $82k, 1 in 4 over $3.9M, 1 in 20 over $53M.

3 in 10 developers made under $14k. 5 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Extraction Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPPoor odds18 devs · median $1.1M · 48 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  3. + FPSPoor odds29 devs · median $219k · 57 announced
  4. + PvEPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds19 devs · median $101k · 37 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds25 devs · median $82k · 49 announced
  7. + ExplorationPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + LootPoor odds26 devs · median $81k · 60 announced
  9. + Looter ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  10. + ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $65k · 105 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds41 devs · median $65k · 79 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $65k · 54 announced

All 16 pairs on the Extraction Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Marathon 2026 · $54M The Forever Winter 2024 · EA · $19M Far Far West 2026 · EA · $19M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Quasimorph $24.99 7,196 82% 216k $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) Magnum Scriptum
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Void Bastards older $29.99 3,888 86% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Blue Manchu
Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six® Extraction older $39.99 2,865 66% 86k $3.4M (exactly $3,437,140) Ubisoft Montreal
Mycopunk · EA $14.99 4,081 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,835,226) Pigeons at Play
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
STARSEEKER: Astroneer Expeditions · EA $29.99 800 56% 24k $720k (exactly $719,760) System Era Softworks

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.