Do I ship it?

Games › Extraction Shooter › Extraction Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Extraction Shooter?

Extraction Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Of 21 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Extraction Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $65k, ×43 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $16k; 1 in 20 cleared $19M, ×12838 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 54 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 43.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 54 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Extraction Shooter + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $54k → $2.4k → $443k (still earning) → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Extraction Shooter + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $15k (exactly $15,467)
Median $65k (exactly $64,820)
Top 25% $443k (exactly $443,178)
Top 5% $19M (exactly $19,231,987)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 28
Announced 54
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Extraction Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online PvPvE sessions with persistent stash servers
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Extraction Shooter; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, PvE, Shooter
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 347,079 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $16k, median $65k, 1 in 4 over $440k, 1 in 20 over $19M.

3 in 10 developers made under $16k. 3 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Extraction Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPPoor odds18 devs · median $1.1M · 48 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  3. + FPSPoor odds29 devs · median $219k · 57 announced
  4. + PvEPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds19 devs · median $101k · 37 announced
  6. + Sci-fiPoor odds26 devs · median $82k · 43 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds25 devs · median $82k · 49 announced
  8. + ExplorationPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  9. + LootPoor odds26 devs · median $81k · 60 announced
  10. + Looter ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  11. + ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $65k · 105 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds41 devs · median $65k · 79 announced

All 16 pairs on the Extraction Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M The Forever Winter 2024 · EA · $19M ZERO Sievert 2024 · $8.6M Road to Vostok 2026 · EA · $5.2M CONVRGENCE 2024 · EA · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
CONVRGENCE · EA older $24.99 1,562 88% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,171,031) Monkey-With-a-Bomb
The Midnight Walkers · EA $19.99 1,479 54% 44k $887k (exactly $886,956) Oneway Ticket Studio
Cargo Hunters · EA $19.99 739 82% 22k $443k (exactly $443,178) Order Of Meta
Night Raider older $5.99 1,908 85% 57k $343k (exactly $342,868) TSUKUYOMIC
Nuclear Epoch $14.99 487 78% 15k $219k (exactly $219,004) Cat Play Studio
Last Group Out older $9.99 566 81% 17k $170k (exactly $169,630) Woodland Development
Blood Running $16.99 198 68% 5.9k $101k (exactly $100,921) Dead Unicorn
Exit Ways · EA $11.69 233 22% 7.0k $82k (exactly $81,713) ASKES
No Escape from Madness $11.99 197 60% 5.9k $71k (exactly $70,861) qiqin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.