Do I ship it?

Games › Extraction Shooter › Extraction Shooter + FPS

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an FPS Extraction Shooter?

Extraction Shooter + FPS

Of 29 developers who shipped an FPS Extraction Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $220k, ×146 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $14k; 1 in 20 cleared $53M, ×35974 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 57 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 146.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 57 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Extraction Shooter + FPS
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5M → $572k → $7.2k → $1.1M → $5.2M (still earning) → $82k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Extraction Shooter + FPS: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Median $219k (exactly $219,004)
Top 25% $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290)
Top 5% $54M (exactly $53,889,324)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 47
Announced 57
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Extraction Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online PvPvE sessions with persistent stash servers
FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Extraction Shooter, FPS; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Shooter, Action, PvE
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
all of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 191,663 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $14k, median $220k, 1 in 4 over $4.5M, 1 in 20 over $53M.

3 in 10 developers made under $14k. 4 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Extraction Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPPoor odds18 devs · median $1.1M · 48 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  3. + PvEPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds19 devs · median $101k · 37 announced
  5. + Sci-fiPoor odds26 devs · median $82k · 43 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds25 devs · median $82k · 49 announced
  7. + ExplorationPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + LootPoor odds26 devs · median $81k · 60 announced
  9. + Looter ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  10. + ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $65k · 105 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds41 devs · median $65k · 79 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $65k · 54 announced

All 16 pairs on the Extraction Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Escape from Tarkov 2025 · $84M Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M Marathon 2026 · $54M Witchfire 2024 · EA · $21M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
Incursion Red River · EA older $21.99 8,300 76% 249k $5.5M (exactly $5,475,510) Games Of Tomorrow GmbH
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
Mycopunk · EA $14.99 4,081 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,835,226) Pigeons at Play
Level Zero: Extraction $19.99 2,446 50% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,466,866) Doghowl Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.