Do I ship it?

Games › Extraction Shooter › Extraction Shooter + Open World

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Extraction Shooter Open World game?

Extraction Shooter + Open World

Only 19 developers shipped an Extraction Shooter Open World game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ARC Raiders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $100k, ×67 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $32k; 1 in 20 cleared $350M, ×239737 the market median. Revenue is up 630% on the market; 37 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 67.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 630% on the market, 37 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Extraction Shooter + Open World
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0M → $54k → $2.4k → $443k (still earning) → $82k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Extraction Shooter + Open World: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $31k (exactly $31,468)
Median $101k (exactly $100,921)
Top 25% $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404)
Top 5% $359M (exactly $359,125,396)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 29
Announced 37
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $16.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 630% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Extraction Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online PvPvE sessions with persistent stash servers
Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Extraction Shooter, Open World; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Survival, Exploration
Price point
$16.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Gore
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $16.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 335,384 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $32k, median $100k, 1 in 4 over $1.9M, 1 in 20 over $350M.

3 in 10 developers made under $32k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Extraction Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPPoor odds18 devs · median $1.1M · 48 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  3. + FPSPoor odds29 devs · median $219k · 57 announced
  4. + PvEPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  5. + Sci-fiPoor odds26 devs · median $82k · 43 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds25 devs · median $82k · 49 announced
  7. + ExplorationPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + LootPoor odds26 devs · median $81k · 60 announced
  9. + Looter ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  10. + ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $65k · 105 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds41 devs · median $65k · 79 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $65k · 54 announced

All 16 pairs on the Extraction Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M Marauders 2022 · EA · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
STARSEEKER: Astroneer Expeditions · EA $29.99 800 56% 24k $720k (exactly $719,760) System Era Softworks
Cargo Hunters · EA $19.99 739 82% 22k $443k (exactly $443,178) Order Of Meta
Nuclear Epoch $14.99 487 78% 15k $219k (exactly $219,004) Cat Play Studio
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
Blood Running $16.99 198 68% 5.9k $101k (exactly $100,921) Dead Unicorn

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.