Do I ship it?

Games › Extraction Shooter › Extraction Shooter + PvP

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvP Extraction Shooter?

Extraction Shooter + PvP

Only 18 developers shipped a PvP Extraction Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, ARC Raiders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1M, ×733 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $65k; 1 in 20 cleared $350M, ×239737 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 48 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 733.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 48 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Extraction Shooter + PvP
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5M → $4.5M → $9.4M (still earning) → $82k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Extraction Shooter + PvP: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $64k (exactly $64,307)
Median $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310)
Top 25% $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004)
Top 5% $359M (exactly $359,125,396)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 39
Announced 48
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $24.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 250% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 31%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Extraction Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online PvPvE sessions with persistent stash servers
PvP
effort 8 / 10 · low · authoritative servers, latency compensation, cheating

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Extraction Shooter, PvP; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Online Co-Op, PvE
Price point
$24.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $24.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 442,344 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $65k, median $1.1M, 1 in 4 over $9.3M, 1 in 20 over $350M.

3 in 10 developers made under $65k. 3 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Extraction Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  2. + FPSPoor odds29 devs · median $219k · 57 announced
  3. + PvEPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  4. + Open WorldPoor odds19 devs · median $101k · 37 announced
  5. + Sci-fiPoor odds26 devs · median $82k · 43 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds25 devs · median $82k · 49 announced
  7. + ExplorationPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  8. + LootPoor odds26 devs · median $81k · 60 announced
  9. + Looter ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  10. + ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $65k · 105 announced
  11. + SurvivalPoor odds41 devs · median $65k · 79 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $65k · 54 announced

All 16 pairs on the Extraction Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M Hunt: Showdown 1896 2019 · $192M Escape from Tarkov 2025 · $84M Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M Marathon 2026 · $54M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Hunt: Showdown 1896 older $29.99 213,023 74% 6.4M $192M (exactly $191,656,793) Crytek
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
Gray Zone Warfare · EA older $39.99 69,146 72% 2.1M $83M (exactly $82,954,456) MADFINGER Games, a.s.
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Marauders · EA older $29.99 13,505 68% 405k $12M (exactly $12,150,448) Small Impact Games
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
SAND: Raiders of Sophie · EA $24.99 12,485 49% 375k $9.4M (exactly $9,360,004) Hologryph, TowerHaus
Ghosts of Tabor · EA older $24.99 9,140 70% 274k $6.9M (exactly $6,852,258) Combat Waffle Studios
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Level Zero: Extraction $19.99 2,446 50% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,466,866) Doghowl Games
Lost Rift · EA $24.99 1,465 67% 44k $1.1M (exactly $1,098,310) People Can Fly
The Midnight Walkers · EA $19.99 1,479 54% 44k $887k (exactly $886,956) Oneway Ticket Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.