Do I ship it?

Games › Extraction Shooter › Extraction Shooter + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Extraction Shooter?

Extraction Shooter + Roguelite

Of 21 developers who shipped a Roguelite Extraction Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $50k, ×33 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $20M, ×13720 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 31 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 33.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 31 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Extraction Shooter + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2M → $182k → $42k (still earning) → $81k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Extraction Shooter + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $7.3k (exactly $7,335)
Median $50k (exactly $49,858)
Top 25% $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332)
Top 5% $21M (exactly $20,552,061)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 26
Announced 31
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Extraction Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online PvPvE sessions with persistent stash servers
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Extraction Shooter, Roguelite; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, RPG
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 121,788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.4k, median $50k, 1 in 4 over $1.2M, 1 in 20 over $20M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.4k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Extraction Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + PvPPoor odds18 devs · median $1.1M · 48 announced
  2. + Online Co-OpPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  3. + FPSPoor odds29 devs · median $219k · 57 announced
  4. + PvEPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds19 devs · median $101k · 37 announced
  6. + Sci-fiPoor odds26 devs · median $82k · 43 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds25 devs · median $82k · 49 announced
  8. + ExplorationPoor odds23 devs · median $82k · 61 announced
  9. + LootPoor odds26 devs · median $81k · 60 announced
  10. + Looter ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  11. + ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $65k · 105 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds41 devs · median $65k · 79 announced

All 16 pairs on the Extraction Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Escape From Duckov 2025 · $45M Witchfire 2024 · EA · $21M SULFUR 2024 · EA · $7.2M Void Bastards 2019 · $3.5M The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu 2026 · $2.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
SULFUR · EA $24.99 9,641 87% 289k $7.2M (exactly $7,227,858) Perfect Random
Void Bastards older $29.99 3,888 86% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Blue Manchu
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Hell is Others older $14.99 991 73% 30k $446k (exactly $445,653) Strelka Games, Yonder
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
Darkblade Ascent $10.99 551 80% 17k $182k (exactly $181,665) PST Games
Soulforge Lost Path $8.99 302 69% 9.1k $81k (exactly $81,449) Ziyue

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.