Do I ship it?

GamesReal-TimeReal-Time + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Exploration

Only 5 developers shipped an Exploration Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Fall Of The MS Estonia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×7.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $600 against a market of $630. 15 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 15 announced, ×7.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real-Time + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,188)
Top 5% $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 50
Announced 15
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 21,371 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $6.5k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 15 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Railway Empire older $29.99 7,219 82% 217k $6.5M (exactly $6,494,934) Gaming Minds Studios
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
StarDrive older $29.99 1,253 43% 38k $1.1M (exactly $1,127,324) Zero Sum Games
Vaporum older $19.99 998 84% 30k $599k (exactly $598,501) Fatbot Games, s. r. o.
Castle Flipper older $18.99 1,027 64% 31k $585k (exactly $585,082) ▲ Pyramid Games
Dice Legacy older $14.99 892 67% 27k $401k (exactly $401,132) DESTINYbit
Necrosmith 2 older $7.99 1,315 77% 39k $315k (exactly $315,206) Alawar
Drox Operative 2 older $19.99 275 89% 8.3k $165k (exactly $164,918) Soldak Entertainment
Ancient Space older $19.99 270 42% 8.1k $162k (exactly $161,919) CreativeForge Games
Dungeon Of Dragon Knight older $11.99 315 74% 9.5k $113k (exactly $113,306) HexGameStudio
Fall Of The MS Estonia $9.99 22 72% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Interactive Gaming Studios
Last Signal $0.99 40 72% 1.2k $1.2k (exactly $1,188) Under Heaven Studios
Kraktures $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Deggy
BaseStar $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DeKat
Skyos · EA $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) SkyOS Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.