Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Exploration game?

PvE + Exploration

Of 767 developers who shipped a PvE Exploration game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,034 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2084 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 2,034 games are announced against 453 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 2,034 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 767
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $1.9k → $1.1k → $1.2k → $1.7k → $1.3k → $748 (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 767
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,941)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545)
Developers, 2 yr 767
Released games 1,761
Announced 2,034
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Exploration; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Online Co-Op
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 809,668 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 423 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,034 games are announced against 453 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Valheim $29.99 464,893 94% 14M $418M (exactly $418,264,232) Iron Gate AB
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
God of War older $49.99 129,712 95% 3.9M $195M (exactly $194,529,086) Santa Monica Studio, Jetpack Interactive
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
Enshrouded · EA older $39.99 93,426 85% 2.8M $112M (exactly $112,083,172) Keen Games GmbH
Dune: Awakening $49.99 66,844 71% 2.0M $100M (exactly $100,245,947) Funcom
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
Abiotic Factor $34.99 42,075 95% 1.3M $44M (exactly $44,166,128) Deep Field Games
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Witchfire · EA $39.99 17,131 91% 514k $21M (exactly $20,552,061) The Astronauts
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Deep Rock Galactic: Rogue Core · EA $29.99 14,049 60% 421k $13M (exactly $12,639,885) Ghost Ship Games
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.