Do I ship it?

GamesFightingFighting + Exploration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Exploration Fighting game?

Fighting + Exploration

Only 11 developers shipped an Exploration Fighting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Blades of Fire, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $480 over 4, against a market of $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 31 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 31 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fighting + Exploration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $7.2k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fighting + Exploration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $117k (exactly $116,677)
Top 5% $627k (exactly $627,443)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 72
Announced 31
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fighting
effort 7 / 10 · low · frame data, hitboxes and rollback netcode
Exploration
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Fighting, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 81% positive over 1,267 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fighting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SandboxStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Score AttackLong shot13 devs · median $599 · 11 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $117k · 26 announced
  4. + Dark FantasyPoor odds11 devs · median $56k · 23 announced
  5. + Souls-likePoor odds8 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  6. + SwordplayPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  7. + HistoricalPoor odds9 devs · median $13k · 16 announced
  8. + CyberpunkPoor odds5 devs · median $9.6k · 18 announced
  9. + Local Co-OpPoor odds41 devs · median $9.4k · 45 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds45 devs · median $9.0k · 64 announced
  11. + Hack and SlashPoor odds29 devs · median $8.7k · 60 announced
  12. + AdventurePoor odds44 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced

All 67 pairs on the Fighting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Kingdoms of Amalur: Re-Reckoning older $39.99 6,305 78% 189k $7.6M (exactly $7,564,108) KAIKO, Big Huge Games, 38 Studios
Curse of the Dead Gods older $19.99 7,807 84% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,681,858) Passtech Games
Enotria: The Last Song older $39.99 2,184 69% 66k $2.6M (exactly $2,620,145) Jyamma Games
Shenmue I & II older $29.99 2,144 89% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,957) D3T
Sid Meier's Pirates! older $9.99 6,198 94% 186k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) Firaxis Games
Guacamelee! Gold Edition older $14.99 3,154 93% 95k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,354) Drinkbox Studios
ELDERBORN older $14.99 2,229 87% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) Hyperstrange
The Shore older $11.99 1,763 70% 53k $634k (exactly $634,151) Ares Dragonis
Blades of Fire $39.99 523 74% 16k $627k (exactly $627,443) MercurySteam
Ertugrul of Ulukayin · EA $19.99 447 84% 13k $268k (exactly $268,066) Tekden Studio
Last Drop · EA $13.99 278 87% 8.3k $117k (exactly $116,677) Lohkare Games Oy
Virtue's Heaven $19.99 12 100% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) MOKKOGRAD
S.S.C. Rusted $3.99 4 100% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Series Sun
Type Fighters $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Sharkbowl Games
MERIDIAN $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) Alexander Kosenko
Ranger Force $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) J Studios Gaming LLC
Oops! You're the Hero! $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Artificium Games
Virus X $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) IcekingPanda

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.