Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Economy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Economy RTS?

RTS + Economy

Of 142 developers who shipped an Economy RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 257 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.9k, ×5.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×2342 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 257 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 257 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Economy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 142
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.3k → $28k → $5.4k → $6.5k → $7.4k → $72k → $2.4k (still earning) → $4.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Economy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 142
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Median $8.9k (exactly $8,902)
Top 25% $91k (exactly $91,154)
Top 5% $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930)
Developers, 2 yr 142
Released games 386
Announced 257
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Economy; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Management, Simulation
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 123,279 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $8.9k, 1 in 4 over $91k, 1 in 20 over $3.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 257 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M Frostpunk 2018 · $103M Manor Lords 2024 · EA · $92M Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M Anno 1800 2019 · $54M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Manor Lords · EA older $39.99 76,884 84% 2.3M $92M (exactly $92,237,735) Slavic Magic
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Against the Storm older $29.99 33,271 94% 998k $30M (exactly $29,933,919) Eremite Games
Farthest Frontier $34.99 24,444 86% 733k $26M (exactly $25,658,867) Crate Entertainment
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Imperator: Rome older $39.99 19,492 65% 585k $23M (exactly $23,384,552) Paradox Development Studio
Banished older $19.99 37,895 90% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,725,632) Shining Rock Software LLC
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Cataclismo $29.99 3,899 88% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,507,930) Digital Sun
Becastled $19.99 5,349 81% 160k $3.2M (exactly $3,207,795) Mana Potion Studios
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.