Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Economy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Economy RPG?

RPG + Economy

Of 190 developers who shipped an Economy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 384 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $780k, ×1255 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 384 games are announced against 132 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.5 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 384 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Economy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 190
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $26k → $7.6k → $23k → $4.5k → $2.7k → $3.0k (still earning) → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Economy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 190
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,443)
Top 25% $39k (exactly $38,610)
Top 5% $788k (exactly $788,194)
Developers, 2 yr 190
Released games 438
Announced 384
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Economy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 77,077 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $780k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 384 games are announced against 132 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crusader Kings III older $49.99 94,615 90% 2.8M $142M (exactly $141,894,116) Paradox Development Studio
Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era · EA $39.99 19,251 86% 578k $23M (exactly $23,095,425) Unfrozen
Last Oasis · EA older $29.99 20,443 63% 613k $18M (exactly $18,392,567) Donkey Crew
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
The Guild 3 older $29.99 7,120 60% 214k $6.4M (exactly $6,405,864) Purple Lamp, GolemLabs
Tropico 5 older $19.99 9,796 78% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,874,661) Haemimont Games
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Tavern Keeper 🍻 · EA $29.99 4,563 94% 137k $4.1M (exactly $4,105,331) Greenheart Games 💚
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Mirthwood $24.99 2,242 69% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,680,827) Bad Ridge Games
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Tower Wizard $2.99 8,787 96% 264k $788k (exactly $788,194) Barribob

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.