Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Economy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Economy game?

PvE + Economy

Of 90 developers who shipped a PvE Economy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 241 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2218 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 241 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 241 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Economy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 90
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $2.3k → $2.2k → $3.6k → $4.3k → $899 → $1.2k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Economy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 90
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,992)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852)
Developers, 2 yr 90
Released games 211
Announced 241
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 105% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Economy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Economy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Strategy, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 41,750 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 241 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Northgard: Definitive Edition 2018 · $57M Last Oasis 2020 · EA · $18M Going Medieval 2026 · $15M Dune: Spice Wars 2023 · $12M MechWarrior 5: Mercenaries 2021 · $12M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Northgard: Definitive Edition older $34.99 54,478 85% 1.6M $57M (exactly $57,185,557) Shiro Games
Last Oasis · EA older $29.99 20,443 63% 613k $18M (exactly $18,392,567) Donkey Crew
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Dune: Spice Wars older $34.99 11,561 79% 347k $12M (exactly $12,135,582) Shiro Games
MechWarrior 5: Mercenaries older $29.99 13,347 84% 400k $12M (exactly $12,008,296) Piranha Games Inc.
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Cossacks 3 older $19.99 12,406 82% 372k $7.4M (exactly $7,439,878) GSC Game World
F1® Manager 2024 older $34.99 5,554 83% 167k $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) Frontier Developments
Turmoil older $12.99 13,154 92% 395k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,114) Gamious
Pioneers of Pagonia $34.99 4,794 81% 144k $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) Envision Entertainment
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Noble Legacy · EA $24.99 744 70% 22k $558k (exactly $557,777) Ultimus Rex LLC
Calyx · EA $24.99 471 88% 14k $353k (exactly $353,109) Studio 568
Fracture Point $19.99 158 81% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Kyrylo Burlaka
Miseria $7.99 350 58% 11k $84k (exactly $83,895) Somnambulist Games
Private Military Manager: Tactical Auto Battler · EA $5.99 291 69% 8.7k $52k (exactly $52,293) 5minlab Corp.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.