Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Dynamic Narration

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dynamic Narration RPG?

RPG + Dynamic Narration

Of 80 developers who shipped a Dynamic Narration RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 173 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×619 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 173 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 173 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Dynamic Narration
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $240 → $6.7k → $987 → $2.2k → $959 → $3.3k (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Dynamic Narration: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,997)
Top 5% $389k (exactly $388,990)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 202
Announced 173
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dynamic Narration
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Dynamic Narration; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Interactive Fiction, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 19,221 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 173 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bastion older $14.99 28,223 95% 847k $13M (exactly $12,691,883) Supergiant Games
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience older $19.99 2,596 91% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) Delve Interactive
Songs for a Hero - Definitive Edition older $14.99 2,414 96% 72k $1.1M (exactly $1,085,576) Dumativa, Castro Brothers
Stories: The Path of Destinies older $14.99 1,943 87% 58k $874k (exactly $873,767) Spearhead Games
Omensight: Definitive Edition older $19.99 1,174 88% 35k $704k (exactly $704,048) Spearhead Games
All Quiet in the Trenches · EA older $24.99 921 90% 28k $690k (exactly $690,474) Totally Not Aliens
Corruption Town · EA $14.99 992 88% 30k $446k (exactly $446,102) BoredBasmati
Witchy Business $14.99 865 86% 26k $389k (exactly $388,990) Rogue Duck Interactive
Under The Island $19.99 446 92% 13k $267k (exactly $267,466) Slime King Games
Heaven Does Not Respond $9.99 530 90% 16k $159k (exactly $158,841) Rise Studios
Hymer 2000 $4.99 1,031 89% 31k $154k (exactly $154,341) doBell
Dustgrave: A Sandbox RPG · EA $21.99 94 71% 2.8k $62k (exactly $62,012) Innervoid Interactive
Ballshit $7.99 228 95% 6.8k $55k (exactly $54,652) 疯兔游戏(FUNTOO Studio), Liquid Meow
Run TavernQuest $12.99 134 93% 4.0k $52k (exactly $52,220) Silicon Sundial

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.