Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Diplomacy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Diplomacy Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Diplomacy

Only 5 developers shipped a Diplomacy Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Terra Invicta, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×7.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $120k against a market of $1.5k. 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 82.6 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 21 announced, ×7.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Diplomacy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Diplomacy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $34k (exactly $33,728)
Median $124k (exactly $123,737)
Top 25% $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069)
Top 5% $11M (exactly $10,865,683)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 26
Announced 21
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Diplomacy
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause, Diplomacy
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 590,459 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $34k, median $120k, 1 in 4 over $1.4M, 1 in 20 over $10M.

3 in 10 developers made under $34k. 21 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Terra Invicta $39.99 9,057 80% 272k $11M (exactly $10,865,683) Pavonis Interactive
Victoria II older $19.99 16,504 92% 495k $9.9M (exactly $9,897,449) Paradox Development Studio
NEBULOUS: Fleet Command · EA older $29.99 4,074 81% 122k $3.7M (exactly $3,665,378) Eridanus Industries
Rebel Inc: Escalation older $14.99 6,928 82% 208k $3.1M (exactly $3,115,522) Ndemic Creations
House of Legacy · EA $14.99 3,269 84% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,069) S3 Studio
World Warfare & Economics · EA older $29.99 643 58% 19k $579k (exactly $578,507) Okron Studio
States of Power $11.99 344 88% 10k $124k (exactly $123,737) Sarunas
Trade Conquest $14.99 75 69% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) GrandPaw Games
RUPTURR · EA $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Aikon Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.