Do I ship it?

Games › Social Deduction › Social Deduction + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Social Deduction game?

Social Deduction + Detective

Of 25 developers who shipped a Detective Social Deduction game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×0.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270. 43 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper, while revenue is down 10% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 43 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Social Deduction + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $456k → $20k → $899 → $2.2k → $269 (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Social Deduction + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $600 (exactly $600)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $201k (exactly $200,799)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 52
Announced 43
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Social Deduction
effort 7 / 10 · low · online lobbies, voice or chat, live player base
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Social Deduction; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Investigation, PvP
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dialogue Heavy, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 2,838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $600, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Social Deduction with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SurvivalFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  2. + PsychologicalFair25 devs · median $4.8k · 34 announced
  3. + SimulationFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 25 announced
  4. + PuzzleLong shot15 devs · median $899 · 22 announced
  5. + Board GameLong shot13 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  6. + Survival HorrorPoor odds14 devs · median $18k · 17 announced
  7. + HorrorPoor odds22 devs · median $10k · 35 announced
  8. + AdventurePoor odds16 devs · median $6.6k · 23 announced
  9. + Character CustomizationPoor odds15 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  10. + PvPPoor odds77 devs · median $2.2k · 134 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds15 devs · median $2.2k · 25 announced
  12. + ActionPoor odds46 devs · median $1.7k · 81 announced

All 21 pairs on the Social Deduction page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

GNOSIA 2022 · $3.6M Deceive Inc. 2023 · $2.9M Perfect Heist 2 2021 · $1.1M SpyParty 2018 · EA · $855k Oh Deer 2024 · $637k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Deceive Inc. older $19.99 4,755 84% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,851,574) Sweet Bandits Studios
Perfect Heist 2 older $9.99 3,711 94% 111k $1.1M (exactly $1,112,187) yeswecamp
SpyParty · EA older $24.99 1,140 77% 34k $855k (exactly $854,658) Chris Hecker, John Cimino
Oh Deer older $9.99 2,125 84% 64k $637k (exactly $636,862) Cozy Cabin Studios
Sinister Night 2 $9.99 1,800 86% 54k $539k (exactly $539,460) Bug Inventors
West Hunt older $9.99 1,522 84% 46k $456k (exactly $456,143) NewGen
KILLER INN · EA $9.99 670 44% 20k $201k (exactly $200,799) Square Enix, Tactic Studios
Yokai Landlord: Monster Mystery! $17.99 120 81% 3.6k $65k (exactly $64,764) Shadow Glove
Stowaway · EA older $4.99 428 74% 13k $64k (exactly $64,072) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
Deadly Trick · EA $8.99 141 95% 4.2k $38k (exactly $38,028) Finalblow Co.
3DMurderMystery TheAshenYou $18.99 38 73% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,649) ぐだぐだぶとん
Which Wizard? · EA $4.99 21 85% 630 $3.1k (exactly $3,144) Intentional Games
Silly Suspects · EA $7.99 12 75% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Classy Games
The Masquerade $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Chewa
Catolonizer · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Alin Games
Agent Versus $5.99 7 100% 210 $1.3k (exactly $1,258) Game Inside Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.