Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Destruction

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Destruction RTS?

RTS + Destruction

Of 24 developers who shipped a Destruction RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×1.7 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×569 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 57 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 57 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Destruction
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $600 → $839 → $2.6k → $13k → $2.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Destruction: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $42,636)
Top 5% $852k (exactly $851,659)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 70
Announced 57
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Destruction
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Destruction; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Action
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,266 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
Dawn of Man older $24.99 17,094 86% 513k $13M (exactly $12,815,372) Madruga Works
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Total Conflict: Resistance · EA older $29.99 5,089 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,578,573) Thunder Devs.
Terminator: Dark Fate - Defiance older $39.99 3,395 82% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,072,982) Slitherine Ltd.
Warhammer Age of Sigmar: Realms of Ruin older $59.99 1,867 55% 56k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,040) Frontier Developments
Taur older $24.99 2,011 79% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,507,647) Echo Entertainment
Men of War: Assault Squad older $9.99 4,029 87% 121k $1.2M (exactly $1,207,491) Digitalmindsoft
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
The Scouring · EA $24.99 1,136 88% 34k $852k (exactly $851,659) Orc Group
Annihilate The Spance · EA $29.99 347 90% 10k $312k (exactly $312,196) Skyglow Softworks
Wartorn $34.99 130 73% 3.9k $136k (exactly $136,461) Stray Kite Studios
Extinction Day $19.99 206 74% 6.2k $124k (exactly $123,538) DryGin Studios
Red Chaos - The Strict Order · EA $17.99 79 81% 2.4k $43k (exactly $42,636) Squarecut Games
Battlefield Commander WWII · EA $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Sword of Steel
NAPOLEON: RULE OF IRON $19.99 22 90% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Eisengeist Studio
Maelstrom: The Battle for Earth Begins Enhanced $6.99 33 75% 990 $6.9k (exactly $6,920) KDV Games
Propa. $7.99 11 54% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Contagio Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.