Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Desktop Companion

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Desktop Companion RPG?

RPG + Desktop Companion

Of 21 developers who shipped a Desktop Companion RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.9k, ×7.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×723 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 55 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 55 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Desktop Companion
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $51k → $4.9k → $7.4k (still earning) → $8.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Desktop Companion: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Median $4.9k (exactly $4,934)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,816)
Top 5% $454k (exactly $453,742)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 30
Announced 55
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 535% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Desktop Companion
effort 1 / 10 · high · effort 1 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Desktop Companion; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Incremental, Creature Collector
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $8.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $8.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 9,533 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $4.9k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $450k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 55 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crusaders Quest : Hero Town $6.99 2,564 76% 77k $538k (exactly $537,671) CQ LABS
Fish to Dish: Idle Sushi $5.99 2,525 96% 76k $454k (exactly $453,742) Kygua Tech
Desktop Raid $8.99 672 76% 20k $181k (exactly $181,238) Lee_Studio
Tap Tap Loot $6.99 815 76% 24k $171k (exactly $170,906) Turtle Knight Games
The NOexistenceN of Lilith $1.99 2,162 98% 65k $129k (exactly $129,071) Nino Games
Nanomon Virtual Pet $14.99 113 88% 3.4k $51k (exactly $50,816) Oscar Brittain
Book of Fei $2.99 347 93% 10k $31k (exactly $31,126) TAO Studio
Desktop Detective $4.99 144 88% 4.3k $22k (exactly $21,557) Conradical Games
Your Second Wife $3.99 135 84% 4.1k $16k (exactly $16,160) Kygua Tech
Deadline Savior · EA $4.99 56 96% 1.7k $8.4k (exactly $8,383) Cointinue Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.