Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Dating Sim

Only 13 developers shipped a Dating Sim Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Matchmaking Inc., made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×6.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $30k, ×63 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $11k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×3278 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 31 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 63.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 31 announced, ×6.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $70k → $30k → $1.3M → $40k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $10k (exactly $10,221)
Median $30k (exactly $30,130)
Top 25% $108k (exactly $107,557)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 36
Announced 31
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Dating Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Card Battler, Card Game
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 10,788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $11k, median $30k, 1 in 4 over $100k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $11k. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 40 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
Moonstone Island older $19.99 4,063 84% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,436,581) Studio Supersoft
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Office Life $19.99 1,725 88% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) LeiYun Games
SpunkStock: Music Festival older $14.99 406 95% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) RegulusNSFW
FUTA FUCKS FEMBOYS $12.99 276 88% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) Horny Capybara Studio
Monster Monpiece older $9.99 284 70% 8.5k $85k (exactly $85,115) COMPILE HEART, IDEA FACTORY
Helmetman · EA older $19.99 136 79% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) GoniNmimi Games
Fuckstone $11.99 217 88% 6.5k $78k (exactly $78,055) Anime Mania
Isekai Big Dick $10.99 122 87% 3.7k $40k (exactly $40,223) Hippo Games
Morningstar: Book of the Fallen $14.99 67 94% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Droid Productions
Hypnosis Card 2 $12.99 65 78% 2.0k $25k (exactly $25,330) Naku Kinoko
Football Rising:Zero to Hero $14.99 54 90% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Den Spade
Forbidden Scrolls : Midnight Whispers $10.99 31 80% 930 $10k (exactly $10,221) Ero Echo Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.