Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding RTS?

RTS + Deckbuilding

Of 52 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×3.0 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×503 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 80 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 80 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $1.3k → $3.6k → $537 → $11k → $3.4k (still earning) → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,083)
Top 5% $753k (exactly $753,248)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 109
Announced 80
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Deckbuilding; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 67% positive over 41,147 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Broken Arrow 2025 · $39M The King is Watching 2025 · $4.0M Border Pioneer 2025 · $753k Rogue Command 2026 · $610k Knightica 2025 · $511k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
Yokai Art: Night Parade of One Hundred Demons older $6.99 1,132 89% 34k $237k (exactly $237,380) Secret Labo
Necronator: Dead Wrong older $12.99 353 67% 11k $138k (exactly $137,564) Toge Productions
Warlords Under Siege $9.99 436 77% 13k $131k (exactly $130,669) RedKar Devs
Ironclad Tactics older $14.99 237 75% 7.1k $107k (exactly $106,579) Zachtronics
Yokai Art 2: Tales of the Nine-Tails $9.99 314 75% 9.4k $94k (exactly $94,106) Secret Labo
Forest Heroes $9.99 278 83% 8.3k $83k (exactly $83,317) Hoochoo Game Studios
Red Rocket Defencism $7.99 172 98% 5.2k $41k (exactly $41,228) tiny cactus studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.