Do I ship it?

Games › Deckbuilding › Deckbuilding + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Roguelite?

Deckbuilding + Roguelite

Of 904 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,657 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×6.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×886 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 1,657 games are announced against 604 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 1,657 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 904
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $5.8k → $12k → $9.3k → $6.9k → $5.8k → $2.2k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 904
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,973)
Top 5% $421k (exactly $421,078)
Developers, 2 yr 904
Released games 1,487
Announced 1,657
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Card Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 282,897 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 336 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,657 games are announced against 604 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Slay the Spire 2 2026 · EA · $138M Inscryption 2021 · $81M Balatro 2024 · $72M 暖雪 Warm Snow 2022 · $19M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
Peglin older $19.99 16,626 83% 499k $10M (exactly $9,970,612) Red Nexus Games Inc.
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
He is Coming · EA $19.99 3,834 84% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,299,250) Chronocle
Emberward $19.99 3,775 96% 113k $2.3M (exactly $2,263,868) Refic Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.