Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Mystery Dungeon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Mystery Dungeon

Of 21 developers who shipped a Mystery Dungeon Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×20 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×457 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 26 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 26 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Mystery Dungeon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $40k → $12k → $6.3k → $49k → $12k → $180 (still earning) → $9.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Mystery Dungeon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $2.7k (exactly $2,726)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $27,432)
Top 5% $217k (exactly $217,249)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 42
Announced 26
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Mystery Dungeon
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Mystery Dungeon; all of the top 25% also carry Dungeon Crawler, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,816 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.8k, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.8k. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dungeon Drafters older $24.99 563 76% 17k $422k (exactly $422,081) Manalith Studios
Vivid World $19.99 591 88% 18k $354k (exactly $354,423) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
Legacy of Defense $7.99 545 72% 16k $131k (exactly $130,636) Enter the Game Studios
Slot & Dungeons $8.99 304 83% 9.1k $82k (exactly $81,989) MUC GAMES
Into the Restless Ruins $14.99 109 83% 3.3k $49k (exactly $49,017) Ant Workshop Ltd
Obsidian Prince older $14.99 103 77% 3.1k $46k (exactly $46,319) Unleash The Giraffe
Digs TD older $19.99 76 67% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Digs Team
Lazriel: The Demon's Fall older $14.99 88 90% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Otakesan
Vambrace: Dungeon Monarch $14.99 61 70% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Dvora Studio Co. Ltd.
Demonherd Dungeon $19.99 36 72% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Demonherd Team
The Dream Labyrinth $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) GGG`s
Heroes Against Time $7.49 53 94% 1.6k $12k (exactly $11,909) David Vinokurov
Dungeon Deck $9.99 37 97% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Incinious

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.