Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Match 3

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Match 3

Of 21 developers who shipped a Match 3 Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×8.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $74k, ×156 the market median. Revenue is up 975% on the market; 44 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 975% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Match 3
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $3.9k → $809 → $3.6k → $4.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Match 3: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $807 (exactly $807)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,835)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,180)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $74,216)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 41
Announced 44
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 975% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Match 3; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Puzzle, Roguelike Deckbuilder
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cartoony, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,704 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $74k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Legend of Bum-Bo older $14.99 5,654 80% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon)
Dogpile $9.99 708 95% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot
Infinite Tao older $3.99 852 79% 26k $102k (exactly $101,984) insomnia
Lucky Hunter $5.99 413 89% 12k $74k (exactly $74,216) 159 Studio
ANTHEM#9 $14.99 125 87% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) koeda
Neon Village $9.99 146 86% 4.4k $44k (exactly $43,756) Encraft
Cats on Duty older $9.99 142 90% 4.3k $43k (exactly $42,557) Prikol Team
Faerie Solitaire Dire · EA older $19.99 41 68% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Subsoap
Zombie Solitaire 2 Chapter 1 older $8.99 90 70% 2.7k $24k (exactly $24,273) rokaplay
Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike $9.99 73 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Pepperbox Studios
Gem and Tarot $4.99 68 100% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,180) SHEN DING
ChronoBabes $3.99 81 80% 2.4k $9.7k (exactly $9,696) Vinci
Slime Soup $4.99 50 90% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) VANDERMAESEN GAMES
Match! The 12 CZ Wars $5.99 27 100% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) CorvusCorax Studio
Dexterous: Time to Steal $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) HalfZach

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.