Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Incremental

Of 63 developers who shipped an Incremental Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×275 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 113 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 113 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 63
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.5k → $11k → $2.2k → $2.3k → $299 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 63
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,534)
Top 5% $131k (exactly $130,636)
Developers, 2 yr 63
Released games 107
Announced 113
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 6,597 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $840, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 49 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Book of Demons older $24.99 8,010 91% 240k $6.0M (exactly $6,005,097) Thing Trunk
Q-UP $9.99 1,126 93% 34k $337k (exactly $337,462) Everybody House Games
This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker $5.99 1,781 86% 53k $320k (exactly $320,046) Mash
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
Legacy of Defense $7.99 545 72% 16k $131k (exactly $130,636) Enter the Game Studios
ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson
The Loopler $9.99 349 90% 10k $105k (exactly $104,595) Mheep
Ultrapool $11.99 265 88% 8.0k $95k (exactly $95,320) Icedrop Games
Lucky Hunter $5.99 413 89% 12k $74k (exactly $74,216) 159 Studio
Brothel Simulator 🍓 older $9.99 235 46% 7.1k $70k (exactly $70,430) Pirates Of The Digital Sea
Replicat $9.99 213 99% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,836) Brainoid Games
All Aboard! The Train Defense Express $4.99 379 84% 11k $57k (exactly $56,736) Likadev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.