Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Idler

Of 42 developers who shipped an Idler Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $74k, ×156 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 68 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 68 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.4k → $1.1k → $4.0k → $599 (still earning) → $298 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.6k (exactly $4,554)
Top 5% $74k (exactly $74,216)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 75
Announced 68
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Incremental, Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Minimalist, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 4,340 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.5k, 1 in 20 over $74k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
This Ain’t Even Poker, Ya Joker $5.99 1,781 86% 53k $320k (exactly $320,046) Mash
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
Lucky Hunter $5.99 413 89% 12k $74k (exactly $74,216) 159 Studio
All Aboard! The Train Defense Express $4.99 379 84% 11k $57k (exactly $56,736) Likadev
大宋英雄传(SongHeros) · EA $9.99 161 79% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) LazyManGameStudio
DEFRAG $2.99 534 93% 16k $48k (exactly $47,900) BlueDot Studio
All About Luck $10.99 134 91% 4.0k $44k (exactly $44,180) Flow Universe
CyberTD older $19.99 50 66% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) Clockwork Origins
Desktop Detective $4.99 144 88% 4.3k $22k (exactly $21,557) Conradical Games
The First Million $6.99 101 75% 3.0k $21k (exactly $21,180) Sonderland
COMBOLITE $6.99 55 76% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,534) Kristoff Red

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.