Do I ship it?

Games › Traditional Roguelike › Traditional Roguelike + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Traditional Roguelike?

Traditional Roguelike + Dark Fantasy

Of 40 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×227 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 70 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 70 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Traditional Roguelike + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $1.2k → $4.8k → $2.5k → $599 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Traditional Roguelike + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $5.1k (exactly $5,095)
Top 5% $142k (exactly $142,358)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 67
Announced 70
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Traditional Roguelike; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,663 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $900, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Traditional Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Female ProtagonistFair15 devs · median $2.9k · 19 announced
  2. + Procedural GenerationFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  3. + CRPGFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  4. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  5. + Turn-Based CombatFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  6. + Sci-fiFair26 devs · median $1.4k · 23 announced
  7. + TacticalFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  8. + FantasyFair99 devs · median $898 · 125 announced
  9. + Turn-Based StrategyFair63 devs · median $779 · 101 announced
  10. + Turn-Based TacticsFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  11. + RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced
  12. + StrategyFair152 devs · median $599 · 207 announced

All 54 pairs on the Traditional Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Soulash 2 2023 · EA · $1.4M Path of Achra 2024 · $949k Lost in Random: The Eternal Die 2025 · $573k Soulash 2022 · $231k Rogue Empire: Dungeon Crawler RPG 2019 · $160k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
Path of Achra older $9.99 3,166 98% 95k $949k (exactly $948,850) Ulfsire
Lost in Random: The Eternal Die $24.99 764 84% 23k $573k (exactly $572,771) Stormteller Games
Soulash older $14.99 513 69% 15k $231k (exactly $230,696) Artur Smiarowski
Rogue Empire: Dungeon Crawler RPG older $14.99 355 84% 11k $160k (exactly $159,644) Portal Entertainment
Trials Survivors · EA $9.99 475 85% 14k $142k (exactly $142,358) Angry wisp
Right and Down older $9.99 200 80% 6.0k $60k (exactly $59,940) mc2games
Lost in Prayer · EA $19.99 92 80% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Nine Dots Studio
Zorbus older $4.99 364 90% 11k $54k (exactly $54,491) Zorbus
Hieroglyphika older $9.99 143 63% 4.3k $43k (exactly $42,857) M. Hanka
Book Shooter $6.99 107 86% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) SOS GameLab.
Gods Wars : infinity Epic $9.99 70 77% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) YCGame
Roguecraft DX $11.99 39 92% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,028) Badger Punch Games
Rangedrifter · EA $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Max Schmidt
魔堡乱斗 · EA $7.99 44 72% 1.3k $11k (exactly $10,547) 奇游此里
Dungeons of Freeport $7.99 28 89% 840 $6.7k (exactly $6,712) Funtime Electrics
Seven Blasphemies $9.99 17 100% 510 $5.1k (exactly $5,095) Crit42 Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.