Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Investigation game?

Investigation + Dark Fantasy

Of 59 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 145 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×469 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 145 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 145 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $239 → $1.9k → $898 → $2.3k → $748 → $3.3k (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,233)
Top 5% $295k (exactly $294,554)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 195
Announced 145
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Puzzle
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Dark, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 5,722 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 145 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Thaumaturge older $34.99 3,888 81% 117k $4.1M (exactly $4,081,234) Fool's Theory
Wytchwood older $19.99 4,030 92% 121k $2.4M (exactly $2,416,791) Alientrap
1666: Amsterdam · EA $29.99 784 63% 24k $705k (exactly $705,365) Panache Digital Games
Is this Game Trying to Kill Me? $14.99 1,513 95% 45k $680k (exactly $680,396) Stately Snail
Werewolf: The Apocalypse — Heart of the Forest older $14.99 805 83% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) Different Tales
The Inquisitor older $39.99 277 66% 8.3k $332k (exactly $332,317) The Dust S.A.
The Dark Rites of Arkham $14.99 655 97% 20k $295k (exactly $294,554) Postmodern Adventures
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
DAEMON MASQUERADE $14.99 514 95% 15k $231k (exactly $231,146) Callum Page
Devil Girl older $9.99 668 85% 20k $200k (exactly $200,200) BananaKing, 台灣香蕉王
Unpossess: Exorcism Simulator $14.99 373 70% 11k $168k (exactly $167,738) Chreseeba Games
Cursed Digicam | 呪われたデジカメ $7.99 611 78% 18k $146k (exactly $146,457) Chilla's Art
Demonheart: The Cursed Trial $24.99 115 90% 3.5k $86k (exactly $86,216) Rolling Crown
Shadows of the Afterland $14.99 135 95% 4.1k $61k (exactly $60,710) Aruma Studios
Daemonologie $2.99 561 92% 17k $50k (exactly $50,322) Katanalevy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.