Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Walking Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Walking Simulator?

Crafting + Walking Simulator

Of 36 developers who shipped a Crafting Walking Simulator in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×413 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 97 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 97 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Walking Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $40k → $1.2k → $4.0k (still earning) → $5.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Walking Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,037)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,496)
Top 5% $260k (exactly $259,540)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 106
Announced 97
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Walking Simulator; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 8,546 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Long Dark older $19.99 110,264 89% 3.3M $66M (exactly $66,125,321) Hinterland Studio Inc.
Miscreated older $29.99 23,050 66% 692k $21M (exactly $20,738,085) Entrada Interactive LLC
Cube World older $19.99 9,885 42% 297k $5.9M (exactly $5,928,034) Picroma
Tank Mechanic Simulator older $19.99 8,792 87% 264k $5.3M (exactly $5,272,562) DeGenerals S.A.
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
The Solus Project older $19.99 2,471 79% 74k $1.5M (exactly $1,481,859) Hourences, Grip Games
CastleMiner Z older $5.99 7,939 83% 238k $1.4M (exactly $1,426,638) DigitalDNA Games
Junkyard Simulator · EA older $19.99 2,182 64% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,545) Rebelia Games
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
Salt older $14.99 1,959 75% 59k $881k (exactly $880,962) Lavaboots Studios
GIRLS MADE PUDDING $9.99 866 95% 26k $260k (exactly $259,540) Kazuhide Oka
Project: Mist · EA $17.99 257 72% 7.7k $139k (exactly $138,703) Chicken Launcher
Short Snow | Cold Survival Game $8.99 153 50% 4.6k $41k (exactly $41,264) MubDev
Sports: Renovations $24.99 53 58% 1.6k $40k (exactly $39,734) Goat Gamez
Village Merchant $14.99 60 68% 1.8k $27k (exactly $26,982) Beast Games S. A., Console Labs S. A.
Biztopia · EA $7.99 105 68% 3.2k $25k (exactly $25,168) Lymo Games
Ember's Verge $14.99 51 88% 1.5k $23k (exactly $22,935) Feralless Games
Nova Antarctica $24.99 14 78% 420 $10k (exactly $10,496) RexLabo, PARCO GAMES
Sushi Simulator $7.99 36 75% 1.1k $8.6k (exactly $8,629) C51 Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.