Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Vampires

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Vampire Crafting game?

Crafting + Vampires

Only 10 developers shipped a Vampire Crafting game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vampires: Bloodlord Rising, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $970k, ×1558 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 21 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Vampires
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $6.9k → $239 → $24k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Vampires: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,184)
Top 5% $978k (exactly $978,111)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 26
Announced 21
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Vampires
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 72% positive over 1,808 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $970k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
V Rising older $34.99 110,505 89% 3.3M $116M (exactly $115,997,098) Stunlock Studios
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
The Infected · EA older $15.99 6,583 84% 197k $3.2M (exactly $3,157,865) DigX Studios
Vampires: Bloodlord Rising · EA $19.99 1,631 70% 49k $978k (exactly $978,111) Mehuman Games
Devoid of Shadows older $8.99 193 59% 5.8k $52k (exactly $52,052) N-Game Studios
Beatdown City Survivors $9.99 80 98% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,976) NuChallenger
The Dark World · EA older $19.99 33 54% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Digital Gods
Decks of the Damned $9.99 54 68% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Thorian Games
Novivors older $4.99 46 69% 1.4k $6.9k (exactly $6,886) Limited Input LLC
Incredible Dracula: Dark Carnival older $6.99 18 88% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) Game Mixer
Incredible Dracula: Academy of Shadows $6.99 17 70% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) Game Mixer
Cryptid Keeper $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Double Jackdaw
ソドミーファタール $6.99 4 100% 120 $839 (exactly $839) Jamsanpoid, VampireK.K.
Lythe The Forgetful Witch: A Visual Novel $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Siren Sigil Studios
Florida Survivor $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Cheddar Mine Games
Monster Hookups $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) W Allured
The Hall That Devours $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) pengdong

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.