Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Turn-Based Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Turn-Based Tactics?

Crafting + Turn-Based Tactics

Of 68 developers who shipped a Crafting Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 115 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×939 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 115 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 115 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Turn-Based Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 68
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $4.0k → $1.8k → $35k → $898 → $1.8k → $2.7k (still earning) → $597 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Turn-Based Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 68
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,279)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,285)
Top 5% $590k (exactly $589,505)
Developers, 2 yr 68
Released games 166
Announced 115
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Turn-Based Tactics; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Turn-Based Strategy, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 11,669 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 35 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 115 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M SpellForce: Conquest of Eo 2023 · $1.9M Bloomtown: A Different Story 2024 · $1.1M Urban Strife 2026 · $685k The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith 2025 · $590k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Bloomtown: A Different Story $24.99 1,428 85% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,070,572) Lazy Bear Games, Different Sense Games
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason
Labyrinth of Touhou Tri -The Dreaming Girls & The Mysterious Orbs- $19.99 616 82% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) Nise-Eikoku Studio
Shardpunk older $13.99 739 92% 22k $310k (exactly $310,158) Clockwork Pile
Stirring Abyss older $24.99 334 88% 10k $250k (exactly $250,400) Sleepy Sentry, K-Project
Turnbound $14.99 446 78% 13k $201k (exactly $200,566) 1TK
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
Gargadusa's Tower $8.99 294 90% 8.8k $79k (exactly $79,292) The Math Team
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
Effulgence RPG $19.99 65 87% 2.0k $39k (exactly $38,980) Andrei Fomin

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.