Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Traditional Roguelike?

Crafting + Traditional Roguelike

Only 14 developers shipped a Crafting Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Approaching Infinity, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×621 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Crafting + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $478 (exactly $478)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,157)
Top 25% $6.7k (exactly $6,712)
Top 5% $390k (exactly $390,203)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 39
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 265% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Traditional Roguelike
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 1,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $6.7k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 22 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Soulash 2 2023 · EA · $1.4M ZED ZONE 2023 · EA · $1.3M Dungeons of Dredmor 2011 · $887k Shattered Pixel Dungeon 2022 · $631k UnReal World 2016 · $532k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Soulash 2 · EA older $18.99 2,382 85% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,357,025) Artur Smiarowski
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
Dungeons of Dredmor older $7.99 3,702 94% 111k $887k (exactly $887,369) Gaslamp Games, Inc.
Shattered Pixel Dungeon older $9.99 2,106 95% 63k $631k (exactly $631,168) Shattered Pixel
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Wayward · EA older $7.99 1,213 86% 36k $291k (exactly $290,756) Unlok
Soulash older $14.99 513 69% 15k $231k (exactly $230,696) Artur Smiarowski
Dredgers older $11.99 471 88% 14k $169k (exactly $169,419) Pirate-Rob
Cataclysm: The Last Generation $6.99 281 89% 8.4k $59k (exactly $58,926) Worm Girl
Alchemist's Alcove $7.99 32 96% 960 $7.7k (exactly $7,670) Nefarious Brew Games
Dungeons of Freeport $7.99 28 89% 840 $6.7k (exactly $6,712) Funtime Electrics
Poker TD $9.99 19 63% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) ViralCloud
InfinityMine · EA $8.99 16 68% 480 $4.3k (exactly $4,315) HayaseWorks
Once upon a Dungeon - Infinity $7.99 9 88% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) Koto Games
The Green Earth · EA $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Caleb M
Convalescent Codex: An Alchemist's Story $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Liar Adahn
Nights of the Sleeping God · EA $1.99 8 100% 240 $478 (exactly $478) Codevanger

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.