Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Time Manipulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Time Manipulation game?

Crafting + Time Manipulation

Only 11 developers shipped a Crafting Time Manipulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Million Depth, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×546 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Time Manipulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $61k → $628 → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Time Manipulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $713 (exactly $713)
Top 5% $343k (exactly $343,028)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 25
Announced 19
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Time Manipulation
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Time Manipulation
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 92% positive over 729 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $710, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Time · EA older $12.99 2,117 97% 64k $825k (exactly $824,995) Lost in Days Studio
Gravity Field older $29.99 778 79% 23k $700k (exactly $699,967) Kazakov Studios
Shadwen older $16.99 1,049 77% 31k $535k (exactly $534,675) Frozenbyte
Million Depth $16.99 673 93% 20k $343k (exactly $343,028) Cyber Space Biotope
Magic Research 2 older $5.99 610 92% 18k $110k (exactly $109,617) Maticolotto
Magic Research older $4.99 410 90% 12k $61k (exactly $61,377) Maticolotto
Daughter of The Void · EA $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Shaybabe
Burger Cooking Simulator older $4.99 25 52% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Pickle Drugs
A Very Bad Christmas Eve older $4.99 14 57% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Incineration Productions
Don't Give Up: Not Ready to Die older $1.99 35 74% 1.1k $2.1k (exactly $2,090) Delta Arcade
Hardware Store & Workshop Simulator · EA $0.99 24 79% 720 $713 (exactly $713) Superwolf Game Studio
Ultimate Car Company Tycoon · EA $6.99 3 33% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Tengrava Games
Backrooms: The Yellow Dream $2.99 7 71% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Crow Games
Duty Free Shop Simulator · EA $4.99 4 25% 120 $599 (exactly $599) CLOWN MAGIC
D.I.G. — Discover Infinite Galaxies · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) BloomSpaceGames
Voxelony · EA $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) ShinyScale Games
Mini-Map $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) TokAyı Games
Monster and Snakes 1.1 $1.65 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Thomas van Esdonk

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.