Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Tabletop game?

Crafting + Tabletop

Of 27 developers who shipped a Crafting Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 5 / 10 build. 16 developers shipped in the last year and 53 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 53 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $60 → $599 → $419 → $1.2k → $628 → $8.5k → $119 (still earning) → $450 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $6.0k (exactly $5,992)
Top 5% $79k (exactly $79,121)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 89
Announced 53
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Tabletop; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 861 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $360, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $79k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
TaleSpire · EA older $24.99 4,391 89% 132k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) Bouncyrock Entertainment
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Doodle God older $14.99 1,030 77% 31k $463k (exactly $463,191) JoyBits Ltd.
RPG Time: The Legend of Wright older $29.99 417 88% 13k $375k (exactly $375,175) 株式会社デスクワークス
Everdell older $19.99 577 90% 17k $346k (exactly $346,027) Dire Wolf
Small World older $9.99 931 71% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) Days of Wonder
WitchHand older $11.99 616 90% 18k $222k (exactly $221,575) Jon Nielsen
Mystic Vale older $12.99 384 89% 12k $150k (exactly $149,645) Nomad Games
Artist Life Simulator older $19.99 173 79% 5.2k $104k (exactly $103,748) Interactive Fate
Factory Planner · EA $7.99 385 70% 12k $92k (exactly $92,284) Lebleby Games
Sizzle & Stack $9.99 264 72% 7.9k $79k (exactly $79,121) Arvis Games
Paper Kingdom $12.99 65 61% 2.0k $25k (exactly $25,330) obece
Decks of the Damned $9.99 54 68% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Thorian Games
Hero Quest - God of Chaos · EA $19.99 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Future Intellect LLC
Canvas - The Board Game $14.99 19 89% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Mipmap Digital
CrafTAE $7.99 25 88% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) mappe
Scrap Collector $4.99 15 53% 450 $2.2k (exactly $2,246) Wibert
Cook with Card · EA $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Genco Interactive
Screw Puzzle Master $1.99 14 50% 420 $836 (exactly $836) Lcc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.