Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Crafting game?

Crafting + Supernatural

Of 23 developers who shipped a Supernatural Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150. 78 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper, while revenue is down 85% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 78 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $4.2k → $299 → $1.8k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,190)
Top 5% $387k (exactly $386,845)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 55
Announced 78
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action-Adventure, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 2,541 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $360, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chernobylite Complete Edition older $29.99 12,416 81% 372k $11M (exactly $11,170,675) The Farm 51
Wylde Flowers older $24.99 2,329 95% 70k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,051) Studio Drydock Pty Ltd
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Shardpunk older $13.99 739 92% 22k $310k (exactly $310,158) Clockwork Pile
Creature Lab older $19.99 343 51% 10k $206k (exactly $205,697) Image Power S.A.
The Outbound Ghost older $19.99 225 68% 6.8k $135k (exactly $134,932) Conradical Games, Radhood
The Herbalist older $5.99 648 93% 19k $116k (exactly $116,446) Moonworks
Edge of Sanity older $19.99 193 67% 5.8k $116k (exactly $115,742) Vixa Games
Ship of Heroes $29.99 91 27% 2.7k $82k (exactly $81,873) Heroic Games Corporation
I Hate This Place $29.99 66 63% 2.0k $59k (exactly $59,380) Rock Square Thunder
ANGST: A TALE OF SURVIVAL $7.99 227 86% 6.8k $54k (exactly $54,412) Cherrypick Games
Evil Mountains · EA $9.99 34 58% 1.0k $10k (exactly $10,190) Kraftverk Softworks
SCP $9.99 24 37% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Molance Games
Scorching Desert $19.99 7 14% 210 $4.2k (exactly $4,198) Desert Runner Studio
The Seven Enchantments $9.99 9 33% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Revolt Entertainment
Forlorn: The mysteries of Highshadowland $9.99 6 66% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) The Spiteful Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.