Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Strategy RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Strategy RPG?

Crafting + Strategy RPG

Of 94 developers who shipped a Crafting Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $680k, ×1091 the market median. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 167 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 167 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Strategy RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 94
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $1.4k → $2.7k → $36k → $1.6k → $1.0k → $2.5k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Strategy RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 94
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,153)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,985)
Top 5% $685k (exactly $685,454)
Developers, 2 yr 94
Released games 212
Announced 167
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Strategy RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 31,201 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $680k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 45 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Crossroads Inn Anniversary Edition older $14.99 3,579 55% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,609,476) Klabater
Thea 2: The Shattering older $24.99 1,892 79% 57k $1.4M (exactly $1,418,432) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Little Rocket Lab $19.99 1,286 90% 39k $771k (exactly $771,214) Teenage Astronauts
Urban Strife $34.99 653 69% 20k $685k (exactly $685,454) White Pond Games
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
Machine Mind $19.99 567 71% 17k $340k (exactly $340,030) Chudo-Yudo Games
Medieval Crafter: Blacksmith $11.99 745 76% 22k $268k (exactly $267,976) Compact Core Games
Ascent of Ashes · EA $14.99 268 68% 8.0k $121k (exactly $120,520) Vivid Storm Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.