Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Crafting game?

Crafting + Space

Of 124 developers who shipped a Space Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 311 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2855 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 311 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 311 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 124
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $3.8k → $4.5k → $1.8k → $9.4k → $3.9k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 124
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $45k (exactly $44,795)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103)
Developers, 2 yr 124
Released games 363
Announced 311
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Base Building, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 43,918 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $44k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 311 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
ASTRONEER older $29.99 118,844 91% 3.6M $107M (exactly $106,923,947) System Era Softworks
ICARUS older $34.99 55,849 75% 1.7M $59M (exactly $58,624,695) RocketWerkz
The Planet Crafter older $23.99 68,855 96% 2.1M $50M (exactly $49,554,944) Miju Games
Starbound older $14.99 87,418 90% 2.6M $39M (exactly $39,311,875) Chucklefish
Trailmakers older $24.99 33,465 92% 1.0M $25M (exactly $25,088,710) Flashbulb
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Breathedge older $24.99 14,697 82% 441k $11M (exactly $11,018,341) RedRuins Softworks
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Occupy Mars: The Game $29.99 2,714 68% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,441,786) ▲ Pyramid Games
SpaceCraft · EA $29.99 2,616 64% 78k $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) Shiro Games
Cubic Odyssey $24.99 2,406 74% 72k $1.8M (exactly $1,803,778) Atypical Games
Star Birds · EA $19.99 2,990 92% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,103) Toukana Interactive
Astrometica · EA $19.99 2,912 82% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,326) BeryMery
Eden Crafters $19.99 2,507 85% 75k $1.5M (exactly $1,503,448) Osaris Games
Astro Colony $19.99 2,397 80% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,437,481) Terad Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.