Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting RTS?

RTS + Crafting

Of 45 developers who shipped a Crafting RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×5.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×2.3 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×964 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 106 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 106 announced, ×5.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $29k → $2.2k → $1.8k → $1.6k → $16k → $3.5k → $2.4k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,506)
Top 25% $63k (exactly $62,968)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 142
Announced 106
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Crafting; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Base Building, Simulation, Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 27,843 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Kenshi 2018 · $89M The Riftbreaker 2021 · $20M Kingdoms and Castles 2017 · $18M Going Medieval 2026 · $15M Outpost: Infinity Siege 2024 · $8.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
The Riftbreaker older $29.99 22,127 90% 664k $20M (exactly $19,907,662) EXOR Studios
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Outpost: Infinity Siege older $24.99 11,636 65% 349k $8.7M (exactly $8,723,509) Team Ranger
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Colony Survival · EA older $24.95 8,260 92% 248k $6.2M (exactly $6,182,610) Pipliz
Planetbase older $14.99 9,558 79% 287k $4.3M (exactly $4,298,233) Madruga Works
Castle Story older $9.99 9,279 67% 278k $2.8M (exactly $2,780,916) Sauropod Studio
Oddsparks: An Automation Adventure $29.99 1,867 82% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,679,740) Massive Miniteam
Survivalist: Invisible Strain $11.99 4,014 87% 120k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,836) Bob
Roman Triumph: Survival City Builder $24.99 742 83% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) Coreffect Interactive
Tower Factory · EA $14.99 1,220 89% 37k $549k (exactly $548,634) Gius Caminiti
Outworld Station $18.99 807 84% 24k $460k (exactly $459,748) Trickjump Games Ltd
Crown of Greed $19.99 680 60% 20k $408k (exactly $407,796) BLUM Entertainment
Darfall $24.99 491 71% 15k $368k (exactly $368,103) SquareNite
IDUN - Frontline Survival $14.99 685 77% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) IDUN Interactive
Summa Expeditionis $19.99 305 68% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Lobico Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.