Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Crafting game?

Crafting + Romance

Of 37 developers who shipped a Romance Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 90 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.4k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $5.3M, ×8445 the market median. Revenue is up 335% on the market; 90 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 335% on the market, 90 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $275k → $3.5k → $6.6k → $17k → $1.5k → $48k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Median $8.4k (exactly $8,396)
Top 25% $83k (exactly $82,772)
Top 5% $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 95
Announced 90
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 335% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Life Sim, Dating Sim
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 42,131 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $8.4k, 1 in 4 over $82k, 1 in 20 over $5.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 90 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
STORY OF SEASONS: Grand Bazaar $49.99 3,140 93% 94k $4.7M (exactly $4,709,058) Marvelous Inc.
Roots of Pacha older $24.99 3,779 93% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,833,116) Soda Den
Littlewood older $14.99 6,083 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,735,525) Sean Young
Fae Farm older $29.99 2,741 78% 82k $2.5M (exactly $2,466,078) Phoenix Labs
Rune Factory 5 older $39.99 1,940 76% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,327,418) Marvelous Inc.
Rune Factory 4 Special older $29.99 2,070 88% 62k $1.9M (exactly $1,862,379) Marvelous Inc.
Wylde Flowers older $24.99 2,329 95% 70k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,051) Studio Drydock Pty Ltd
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Ova Magica $29.99 581 91% 17k $523k (exactly $522,726) ClaudiaTheDev, Skinny Frog
Tamer: King of Dinosaurs · EA $24.99 347 86% 10k $260k (exactly $260,146) Ride the Lion Studios
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
Cattle Country $18.99 335 86% 10k $191k (exactly $190,849) Castle Pixel, LLC.
Kitchen Sync: Aloha! $19.99 159 99% 4.8k $95k (exactly $95,352) Lemonpepper Games
Anime City · EA $14.99 201 72% 6.0k $90k (exactly $90,390) Shoujo City Developer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.