Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Roguelike?

Crafting + Roguelike

Of 187 developers who shipped a Crafting Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 341 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $580k, ×939 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 341 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 341 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 187
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $8.2k → $8.2k → $6.5k → $19k → $4.4k → $1.1k (still earning) → $809 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 187
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,186)
Top 5% $590k (exactly $589,505)
Developers, 2 yr 187
Released games 410
Announced 341
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 76,071 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $580k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 341 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Don't Starve Together older $14.99 376,165 94% 11M $169M (exactly $169,161,400) Klei Entertainment
Noita older $19.99 81,149 95% 2.4M $49M (exactly $48,665,055) Nolla Games
Don't Starve older $9.99 97,007 96% 2.9M $29M (exactly $29,072,998) Klei Entertainment
Dwarf Fortress older $29.99 29,303 94% 879k $26M (exactly $26,363,909) Bay 12 Games
Soulstone Survivors $14.99 25,749 91% 772k $12M (exactly $11,579,325) Game Smithing Limited
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
The Escapists older $17.99 14,294 90% 429k $7.7M (exactly $7,714,472) Mouldy Toof Studios
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
Void Bastards older $29.99 3,888 86% 117k $3.5M (exactly $3,498,034) Blue Manchu
Deadly Days: Roadtrip · EA $14.99 2,855 87% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,283,894) Pixelsplit
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios
Anomaly President · EA $14.99 1,376 91% 41k $619k (exactly $618,787) Phew Phew Games
The Shimmering Horizon and Cursed Blacksmith $19.99 983 58% 29k $590k (exactly $589,505) Ason

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.