Should I ship a PvE Crafting game?
PvE + Crafting
Of 304 developers who shipped a PvE Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 917 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×4123 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 917 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $599 (exactly $599) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) |
| Top 25% | $49k (exactly $48,851) |
| Top 5% | $2.6M (exactly $2,589,464) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 304 |
| Released games | 686 |
| Announced | 917 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE, Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Action, Open World
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 997,363 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 153 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 917 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + HeistPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Valheim 2026 · $418M 
ARC Raiders 2025 · $359M 
ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M 
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide 2022 · $130M 
V Rising 2024 · $116M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Valheim | $29.99 | 464,893 94% | 14M | $418M (exactly $418,264,232) | Iron Gate AB | |
| | ARC Raiders | $39.99 | 299,346 82% | 9.0M | $359M (exactly $359,125,396) | Embark Studios | |
| | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
| | Warhammer 40,000: Darktide | older | $39.99 | 108,477 72% | 3.3M | $130M (exactly $130,139,857) | Fatshark |
| | V Rising | older | $34.99 | 110,505 89% | 3.3M | $116M (exactly $115,997,098) | Stunlock Studios |
 | Enshrouded | · EA older | $39.99 | 93,426 85% | 2.8M | $112M (exactly $112,083,172) | Keen Games GmbH |
 | Dune: Awakening | $49.99 | 66,844 71% | 2.0M | $100M (exactly $100,245,947) | Funcom | |
 | Far Cry® 6 | older | $59.99 | 33,280 71% | 998k | $60M (exactly $59,894,016) | Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubis… (Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Berlin) |
 | ICARUS | older | $34.99 | 55,849 75% | 1.7M | $59M (exactly $58,624,695) | RocketWerkz |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
 | FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time | $59.99 | 11,771 91% | 353k | $21M (exactly $21,184,269) | LEVEL5 Inc. | |
 | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel | |
 | MISERY | $12.99 | 20,015 85% | 600k | $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) | Platypus Entertainment | |
 | Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days | · EA | $24.99 | 9,049 89% | 271k | $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) | PikPok |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.