Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Puzzle Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Puzzle Platformer?

Crafting + Puzzle Platformer

Of 27 developers who shipped a Crafting Puzzle Platformer in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. 39 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 305% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 305% on the market, 39 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Puzzle Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $2.8k → $1.1k → $239 → $179 → $7.8k (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Puzzle Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,277)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 100
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 305% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Puzzle Platformer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Puzzle, Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Atmospheric, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 9,199 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $240, 1 in 4 over $1.0k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. Nearly all of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farever · EA $19.99 8,968 75% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) Shiro Games
Logiart Grimoire older $19.99 336 94% 10k $201k (exactly $201,499) Jupiter Corporation
Time on Frog Island older $19.99 284 71% 8.5k $170k (exactly $170,315) Half Past Yellow
Grindstone older $19.99 244 93% 7.3k $146k (exactly $146,327) Capybara Games
DreamWorks Dragons: Dawn of New Riders older $29.99 158 90% 4.7k $142k (exactly $142,153) Climax Studios Ltd.
Mask of Mists older $14.99 171 85% 5.1k $77k (exactly $76,899) 9 Eyes Game Studio
Linkito older $14.99 152 87% 4.6k $68k (exactly $68,354) Kalinarm
Inferno Protocol · EA $13.49 144 79% 4.3k $58k (exactly $58,277) Tektonic Interactive
Nanali in another world older $29.99 31 80% 930 $28k (exactly $27,891) Fasu Studio
心动满屋 older $3.99 218 75% 6.5k $26k (exactly $26,095) 成都萌创科技有限公司
The Wilds of Dacrima: Field Notes from a Poorly Supervised Alchemist and his Unruly Clockwork Companion $19.99 13 100% 390 $7.8k (exactly $7,796) Antler Studios
LINK Penguins $5.99 31 87% 930 $5.6k (exactly $5,571) lemorion_1224
Ploko $9.99 15 100% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Nifty cat studio
Screwball $12.99 5 80% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) Scott Tipton
Fill Multicolor $5.99 6 100% 180 $1.1k (exactly $1,078) Alexis Clemente
Neanderthallica $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Cheers LLC
VTuberのQ $2.68 10 60% 300 $804 (exactly $804) liica, Inc.
GunBlocks · EA $6.99 3 100% 90 $629 (exactly $629) Steve Welz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.