Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Puzzle game?

Crafting + Puzzle

Of 196 developers who shipped a Crafting Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 296 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×603 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 296 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 296 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 196
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.4k → $1.4k → $1.8k → $1.1k → $897 → $1.5k → $4.3k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 196
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,233)
Top 5% $379k (exactly $378,591)
Developers, 2 yr 196
Released games 581
Announced 296
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 53,435 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 110 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 296 games are announced against 107 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Escapists 2 older $19.99 26,452 90% 794k $16M (exactly $15,863,264) Team17, Mouldy Toof Studios
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
Hello Kitty Island Adventure $39.99 9,637 93% 289k $12M (exactly $11,561,509) Sunblink
The Escapists older $17.99 14,294 90% 429k $7.7M (exactly $7,714,472) Mouldy Toof Studios
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
Poly Bridge older $9.99 17,107 91% 513k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,968) Dry Cactus
shapez older $9.99 14,252 96% 428k $4.3M (exactly $4,271,324) Tobias Springer
Poly Bridge 2 older $14.99 7,875 95% 236k $3.5M (exactly $3,541,388) Dry Cactus
Survival: Fountain of Youth older $27.99 4,095 85% 123k $3.4M (exactly $3,438,572) Odinsoft Inc.
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
Cat Mail Co. $14.99 6,289 92% 189k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,163) Maracas Studio
Cheap Car Repair $19.69 3,603 91% 108k $2.1M (exactly $2,128,292) Little Dog Games
Trash Goblin $19.99 1,574 87% 47k $944k (exactly $943,928) Spilt Milk Studios Ltd
Orb of Creation $11.99 2,167 84% 65k $779k (exactly $779,470) MarpleGames
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
Click Mage $4.99 2,529 91% 76k $379k (exactly $378,591) Tiny Crow Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.