Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Crafting game?

Crafting + Psychological Horror

Of 51 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 119 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×2714 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 119 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 119 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.2k → $15k → $6.6k → $387k → $1.2k → $2.4k (still earning) → $7.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $628 (exactly $628)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,358)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 118
Announced 119
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 27,696 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 119 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
We Happy Few older $59.99 11,204 76% 336k $20M (exactly $20,163,839) Compulsion Games
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
METAL GEAR SURVIVE older $29.99 3,687 64% 111k $3.3M (exactly $3,317,194) KONAMI
DESOLATE older $14.99 6,228 68% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,800,732) Nearga
Card Survival: Tropical Island older $24.99 2,962 94% 89k $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) WinterSpring Games
Wanderstop $24.99 2,938 92% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,202,619) Ivy Road
REKA · EA older $19.99 2,989 82% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,792,503) Emberstorm Entertainment
Fisher Online older $13.99 4,199 81% 126k $1.8M (exactly $1,762,320) R-Age LLC
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Lucid Blocks $9.99 4,670 93% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,599) Lucy B. Locks
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive
Village in the Shade $49.99 552 91% 17k $828k (exactly $827,834) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Deathground · EA $14.99 877 61% 26k $394k (exactly $394,387) Jaw Drop Games
Stygian: Outer Gods · EA $24.99 516 80% 15k $387k (exactly $386,845) Misterial Games
Backrooms Lost Runners · EA $13.99 592 75% 18k $248k (exactly $248,462) ShimStudioGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.