Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Crafting game?

Crafting + Psychological

Of 20 developers who shipped a Psychological Crafting game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×25624 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 44 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 44 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $90 → $539 → $1.8k → $1.8k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Top 5% $16M (exactly $16,091,901)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 37
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting; all of the top 25% also carry Action-Adventure, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Third Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 17,289 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $7.4k, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
This War of Mine older $19.99 81,804 93% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,057,859) 11 bit studios
The Alters $34.99 15,330 90% 460k $16M (exactly $16,091,901) 11 bit studios
Total Chaos $24.99 1,561 86% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,170,282) Trigger Happy Interactive
Grey Skies: A War of the Worlds Story older $11.99 154 35% 4.6k $55k (exactly $55,394) Steel Arts Software
ANGST: A TALE OF SURVIVAL $7.99 227 86% 6.8k $54k (exactly $54,412) Cherrypick Games
Siren's Well $24.99 62 66% 1.9k $46k (exactly $46,481) OneManOnly Studios
Bring to Light older $19.99 34 61% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Red Meat Games
The Blight · EA older $19.99 32 46% 960 $19k (exactly $19,190) Ethereal Entertainment Tmi
Confronted · EA $7.99 31 100% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Grumpy Rock Studios
Blind Boris older $12.99 15 53% 450 $5.8k (exactly $5,846) Marginal act
Habit Puzzles $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) NQNStudios
Beggar's Life $2.99 33 60% 990 $3.0k (exactly $2,960) Perennial Hearts LLC
Housekeeper: Anomaly $5.99 14 100% 420 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Alex Grim
Pepper Odyssey $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Wavey Games
Chopped toys $4.99 12 83% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) Hushed Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.