Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Programming game?

Crafting + Programming

Of 22 developers who shipped a Crafting Programming game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×455 the market median. Revenue is up 980% on the market; 40 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 980% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $2.2k → $1.0k → $359 → $4.5k (still earning) → $65k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,272)
Top 5% $286k (exactly $286,009)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 68
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 980% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Programming; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Automation, Sandbox, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,748 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starbase 2021 · EA · $6.5M Mad Games Tycoon 2 2023 · $5.5M Turing Complete 2021 · EA · $3.3M Autonauts 2019 · $2.2M Mad Games Tycoon 2016 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
Autonauts older $19.99 3,596 90% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,156,521) Denki
Mad Games Tycoon older $14.99 3,700 91% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,663,890) Eggcode
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
Main Assembly older $19.99 1,004 83% 30k $602k (exactly $602,099) Bad Yolk Games
Omega Crafter $24.99 529 77% 16k $397k (exactly $396,591) Preferred Networks
Homebrew - Patent Unknown · EA older $14.99 828 71% 25k $372k (exactly $372,352) Copybugpaste
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
Icaria $24.99 79 75% 2.4k $59k (exactly $59,226) Blindsight Games LLC
UNHUMAN $3.99 161 73% 4.8k $19k (exactly $19,272) Kinda Lowkey Games
SysAdmin Odyssey - Back to the office · EA $8.30 40 75% 1.2k $10k (exactly $9,960) Molodoy-GameDev
F.A.R.M.S.: Chill Factory $7.99 22 72% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) Plema Crafts
Code Tycoon $9.99 15 80% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Mennen Games
MicroFab $4.99 17 70% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Flirp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.