Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Political Sim?

Crafting + Political Sim

Only 13 developers shipped a Crafting Political Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sinner Maker, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×251 the market median. Revenue is up 520% on the market; 34 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 520% on the market, 34 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $599 → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $898 (exactly $898)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $157,941)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 27
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 520% on the market, supply 235% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Political Sim
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 670 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 34 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Eco 2018 · EA · $10M We. The Revolution 2019 · $1.2M Fantasy Map Simulator 2024 · EA · $1.0M Floodland 2022 · $552k Base One 2021 · $343k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
We. The Revolution older $19.99 1,997 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,197,601) Polyslash
Fantasy Map Simulator · EA older $7.99 4,190 89% 126k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,343) The Stranger
Floodland older $19.99 921 54% 28k $552k (exactly $552,324) Vile Monarch
Base One older $24.99 458 36% 14k $343k (exactly $343,363) PixFroze
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
Hockey Manager 20|20 older $19.99 76 61% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) netmin games
Magic Forge Tycoon $11.99 82 69% 2.5k $29k (exactly $29,495) Clever Trickster Studio, Clever Trickst… (Clever Trickster Studio, Clever Trickster Productions)
Pharma R&D Manager $49.99 3 66% 90 $4.5k (exactly $4,499) Innopede GmbH
EmpireX - Business, Real Estate and Crime Simulator $14.99 8 75% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) darkwolf66
Genesis Relic: Idle Sandbox Simulator $3.99 13 92% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) BambooCopter
Government Contractors: Arms of Influence · EA $6.00 5 20% 150 $900 (exactly $900) Dan K.
The Shadow Architect · EA $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) StoneBreaker Studios
Rise of the Settlement · EA $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Luki
暗色战争(Dark Conflict) $2.99 5 40% 150 $449 (exactly $449) Li
Hansa Forever $3.00 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Oğuzcan Şirolu

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.