Games › Crafting › Crafting + Perma Death
Should I ship a Crafting Perma Death game?
Crafting + Perma Death
Of 42 developers who shipped a Crafting Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 102 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×546 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 102 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $539 (exactly $539) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.0k (exactly $2,997) |
| Top 25% | $9.7k (exactly $9,712) |
| Top 5% | $343k (exactly $343,028) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 42 |
| Released games | 144 |
| Announced | 102 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Crafting
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Crafting, Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Roguelike
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 88% positive over 11,520 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 102 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorStrong odds
- + SportsFair
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + IdlerFair
- + SolitaireFair
- + LovecraftianPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + LGBTQ+Poor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + WesternPoor odds
- + Bullet HeavenPoor odds
- + TrainsPoor odds
Comparable games
Noita 2020 · $49M 
Don't Starve 2013 · $29M 
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days 2025 · EA · $6.8M 
State of Decay: YOSE 2015 · $6.3M 
The Last Stand: Aftermath 2021 · $4.6M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Noita | older | $19.99 | 81,149 95% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,665,055) | Nolla Games |
| | Don't Starve | older | $9.99 | 97,007 96% | 2.9M | $29M (exactly $29,072,998) | Klei Entertainment |
| | Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days | · EA | $24.99 | 9,049 89% | 271k | $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) | PikPok |
| | State of Decay: YOSE | older | $19.99 | 10,526 82% | 316k | $6.3M (exactly $6,312,442) | Undead Labs |
| | The Last Stand: Aftermath | older | $24.99 | 6,096 80% | 183k | $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) | Con Artist Games |
 | Card Survival: Tropical Island | older | $24.99 | 2,962 94% | 89k | $2.2M (exactly $2,220,611) | WinterSpring Games |
 | NEO Scavenger | older | $14.99 | 4,437 89% | 133k | $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) | Blue Bottle Games |
 | One Hour One Life | older | $14.99 | 3,988 79% | 120k | $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) | Jason Rohrer |
 | ZOMBI | older | $19.99 | 2,964 64% | 89k | $1.8M (exactly $1,777,511) | Straight Right |
 | Magicite | older | $9.99 | 5,802 85% | 174k | $1.7M (exactly $1,738,859) | Sean Young |
 | Approaching Infinity | $17.99 | 723 95% | 22k | $390k (exactly $390,203) | IBOL | |
 | Million Depth | $16.99 | 673 93% | 20k | $343k (exactly $343,028) | Cyber Space Biotope | |
 | EverRail | · EA | $14.99 | 372 69% | 11k | $167k (exactly $167,288) | Aesir Interactive |
 | 硬币与仙人掌 (Coins & Wishpalm) | $13.99 | 343 77% | 10k | $144k (exactly $143,957) | Moshow Games | |
 | Peregrino | $16.99 | 174 65% | 5.2k | $89k (exactly $88,688) | Inverge Studios | |
 | Dive The Depths | $9.99 | 87 72% | 2.6k | $26k (exactly $26,074) | Frizuo, Starpixel Studios | |
 | Neolithic Dawn | $19.99 | 30 60% | 900 | $18k (exactly $17,991) | Neolithic LLC | |
 | Don't Freeze: A Winter Card Survival | · EA | $17.99 | 31 74% | 930 | $17k (exactly $16,731) | YOLO35GAMES |
 | Encounter: The Lost Cards | $12.99 | 38 68% | 1.1k | $15k (exactly $14,809) | Salvatore Grosso |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.